Summary on the Analysis of the Firarms Control Act on Crime (2000-2014)
11 October 2025 @ 10:55 Filed in:
Politics | Self DefenseNEDLAC is pushing for a new fire arms control act. However, it is NOT new. This is the same act that was thoroughly rejected and is now being pushed for adoption again. In 2014 The National Civilian Secretariat for Police Services (CSP), under the "Firearms Research Project (December 2014)", contracted Wits School of Governance (WSG) to compile the report with the purpose to inform amendments to the Firearms Control Act. I believe the results was not quite what the government was hoping for.
Below you will find a summary of the report, with a link at the bottom to the full 166 page report.
Summary: Analysis of the Effect of the Firearms Control Act on Crime (2000-2014)
Key Objective
Assess whether the Firearms Control Act (FCA), implemented in 2004, has been effective in reducing crime in South Africa.
Main Findings
1. Strong Policing, Not the FCA, Reduces Crime
• Crime rates declined most during 2008/9-2010/11 (FIFA World Cup period with intense policing operations)
• Crime increased again in 2011/12-2013/14 despite the FCA remaining in place
• Conclusion: The level of strong policing, rather than the FCA, is necessary to reduce firearm-related crime. The FCA alone is insufficient without robust policing.
2. Limited Scope of the FCA
• The FCA is relevant to less than 5% of all crimes reported to SAPS
• Firearms are used in only ~33% of murders nationally
• Most violent crimes use sharp objects (knives, etc.), not firearms
• Violent crime should NOT be equated with firearms
3. Two Types of Firearm-Related Crimes
Firearm Choice Crimes (27%)
• Murder, attempted murder, robbery at residential premises
• Can be committed with firearms OR other weapons
• Responsive to policing - firearm usage drops when crime rates drop
Firearm Dependent Crimes (29%)
• Carjacking, truck hijacking, bank robbery, cash-in-transit robbery
• Require firearms to perpetrate
• Impervious to the FCA - firearm usage remains high even when crime rates drop
4. Sustainability Requires Continued Strong Policing
• Firearm use in murders decreased during strong policing periods
• BUT returned to higher levels when policing weakened (2011/12-2013/14)
• Without sustained strong policing, gains are lost despite the FCA
5. Demographics & Age Impact
• Little evidence that raising the minimum age (16→21 years) changed firearm use by young people
• Only 2% of registered firearm owners are 21-30 years old; 12% are 21-40
• Population of legal firearm owners is ageing significantly
6. Lost and Stolen Firearms
• Rate of reported stolen/lost firearms has decreased since 2000
• Recovery rates improving: 9% same year, 14% within 2 years
• BUT eventual recovery rate remains low at ~20%
• Handguns overrepresented: 70% of stolen firearms vs. 36% of registered firearms
• Profile of stolen firearms mirrors firearms used in crime
• Gauteng has worst rates of losses and recoveries
7. SAPS Statistics Validation
• WSG statistics (2-7% higher) show same trends as official SAPS statistics
• Both show decline in 2008/9-2010/11 and increase in 2011/12-2013/14
• Confirms validity of findings
Key Recommendations
1 Shift focus from FCA to policing - Stop misplaced faith in FCA as primary crime solution
2 Formulate distinct policies for:
◦ Firearm Choice crimes (consider Dangerous Weapons Act)
◦ Firearm Dependent crimes (target smuggled/high-calibre weapons)
3 Improve data systems - Link SAPS databases (crime records, CFR, IBIS, court records)
4 Regular unconditional firearm amnesties - Remove estate and unwanted firearms
5 Address ageing firearm owner population - Only 2% are under 30
6 Release crime statistics more frequently - Currently 6-18 months delayed
7 Respect FCA's role within policing context - FCA helps control legal firearms but cannot control crime alone
Critical Conclusion
The FCA is necessary but not sufficient. Strong, strategic policing is the essential condition for reducing firearm-related crime. The FCA alone, no matter how strict, cannot reduce crime in the absence of effective law enforcement. Government's unconditional faith in the FCA as a crime-fighting solution is misplaced.
Below you will find the full report:
CSPS-WSG_Firearms_Report 